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Creators/Authors contains: "Lai, Ching-Yao"

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  1. Free, publicly-accessible full text available May 1, 2026
  2. Antarctic ice shelves buttress the grounded ice sheet, mitigating global sea level rise. However, fundamental mechanical properties, such as the ice flow law and viscosity structure, remain under debate. In this work, by leveraging remote-sensing data and physics-informed deep learning, we provide evidence over several ice shelves that the flow law follows a grain size–sensitive composite rheology in the compression zone. In the extension zone, we found that ice exhibits anisotropic properties. We constructed ice shelf–wide anisotropic viscosity maps that capture the suture zones, which inhibit rift propagation. The inferred stress exponent near the grounding zone dictates the grounding-line ice flux and grounding line stability, whereas the inferred viscosity maps inform the prediction of rifts. Both are essential for predicting the future mass loss of the Antarctic Ice Sheet. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available March 14, 2026
  3. Abstract We discuss the emerging advances and opportunities at the intersection of machine learning (ML) and climate physics, highlighting the use of ML techniques, including supervised, unsupervised, and equation discovery, to accelerate climate knowledge discoveries and simulations. We delineate two distinct yet complementary aspects: (a) ML for climate physics and (b) ML for climate simulations. Although physics-free ML-based models, such as ML-based weather forecasting, have demonstrated success when data are abundant and stationary, the physics knowledge and interpretability of ML models become crucial in the small-data/nonstationary regime to ensure generalizability. Given the absence of observations, the long-term future climate falls into the small-data regime. Therefore, ML for climate physics holds a critical role in addressing the challenges of ML for climate simulations. We emphasize the need for collaboration among climate physics, ML theory, and numerical analysis to achieve reliable ML-based models for climate applications. 
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    Free, publicly-accessible full text available November 26, 2025
  4. Abstract Basal crevasses threaten the stability of ice shelves through the potential to form rifts and calve icebergs. Furthermore, it is important to determine the dependence of crevasse stability on temperature due to large vertical temperature variations on ice shelves. In this work, considering the vertical temperature profile through ice viscosity, we compare (1) the theoretical crack depths and (2) the threshold stress causing the transition from basal crevasses to full thickness fractures in several fracture theories. In the Zero Stress approximation, the depth-integrated force at the crevassed and non-crevassed location are unbalanced, violating the volume-integrated Stokes equation. By incorporating a Horizontal Force Balance (HFB) argument, recent work showed analytically that the threshold stress for rift initiation is only half of that predicted by the Zero Stress approximation. We generalize the HFB theory to show that while the temperature profile influences crack depths, the threshold rifting stress is insensitive to temperature. We compare with observations and find that HFB best matches observed rifts. Using HFB instead of Zero Stress for cracks in an ice-sheet model would substantially enlarge the predicted fracture depth, reduce the threshold rifting stress and potentially increase the projected rate of ice shelf mass loss. 
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  5. Abstract On the Greenland Ice Sheet, hydrofracture connects the supraglacial and subglacial hydrologic systems, coupling surface runoff dynamics and ice velocity. In recent decades, the growth of low-permeability ice slabs in the wet snow zone has expanded Greenland's runoff zone, but observations suggest that surface-to-bed connections are rare, because meltwater drains through crevasses into the porous firn beneath ice slabs. However, there is little quantitative evidence confirming the absence of surface-to-bed fracture propagation. Here, we use poromechanics to investigate whether water-filled crevasses in ice slabs can propagate vertically through an underlying porous firn layer. Based on numerical simulations, we develop an analytical estimate of the water injection-induced effective stress in the firn given the water level in the crevasse, ice slab thickness, and firn properties. We find that the firn layer substantially reduces the system's vulnerability to hydrofracture because much of the hydrostatic stress is accommodated by a change in pore pressure, rather than being transmitted to the solid skeleton. This result suggests that surface-to-bed hydrofracture will not occur in ice slab regions until all pore space proximal to the initial flaw has been filled with solid ice. 
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  6. Abstract Iceberg calving is a major contributor to Greenland’s ice mass loss. Ice mélange, tightly packed sea ice and icebergs, has been hypothesized to buttress the calving fronts. However, quantifying the mélange buttressing force from field observations remains a challenge. Here we show that such quantification can be achieved with a single field measurement: thickness of mélange at the glacier terminus. We develop the first three-dimensional discrete element model of m´elange along with a simple analytical model to quantify the mélange buttressing using mélange thickness data from ArcticDEM over 32 Greenland glacier termini. We observed a strong seasonality in mélange thickness: thin mélange (averaged thickness 34+17−15m) in summertime when terminus retreats, and thick mélange (averaged thickness 119+31−37m) in wintertime when terminus advances. The observed seasonal changes of mélange thickness strongly coincide with observed Greenland calving dynamics and the modeled buttressing effects. 
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  7. ### Access Dataset and extensive metadata can be accessed and downloaded via: [https://arcticdata.io/data/10.18739/A2CZ32678/](https://arcticdata.io/data/10.18739/A2CZ32678/) ### Overview A limited understanding of how glacier-ocean interactions lead to iceberg calving and melting at the ice-ocean boundary contributes to uncertainty in predictions of sea level rise. Dense packs of icebergs and sea ice, known as ice mélange, occur in many fjords in Greenland and Antarctica. Observations suggest that ice mélange may directly affect iceberg calving by pressing against the glacier front and indirectly affect glacier melting by controlling where and when icebergs melt which can impact ocean circulation and ocean heat transport towards glaciers. However, the interactions between ice mélange, ocean circulation, and iceberg calving have not been systematically investigated due to the difficulty of conducting field work in Greenland fjords. In order to investigate the dynamics of ice mélange (and other floating granular materials) and to inform development of ice mélange models, we conducted a series of laboratory experiments using synthetic icebergs (plastic blocks) that were pushed down a tank by a synthetic glacier. This data set consists of force measurements on the glacier terminus and time-lapse photographs of the experiments that were used for visualizing motion. 
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  8. Earth's surface materials constitute the basis for life and natural resources. Most of these materials can be catergorized as soft matter, yet a general physical understanding of the ground beneath our feet is still lacking. Here we provide some perspectives. 
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